The metropolitan areas of Sydney and Melbourne plateaued in 2018/19 and we are expecting downturns in both regions over the next couple of years driven by the falling residential sector. However, we expect that both downturns will be softened by booming commercial building sectors and a number of large urban transport infrastructure projects (road and rail) in each city.
The Brisbane market was previously expected to be entering an upturn, but is now forecasted to fall the next couple of years. This is largely due to more dramatic declines in residential than previously expected.
Perth has declined over the past few years, mainly due to a big drop in residential building and a weak economy (related to the mining downturn). Transport projects and a small upturn in non-residential building should slow the decline in 2019/20. Following the trough, strong improvements in the residential sector are then expected to drive a recovery in total activity.
The resources-dominated Pilbara has seen enormous downturns in activity and big outflows of people but is expected to rebound reasonably strongly from 2020/21 and then plateau for most of the forecast period.