|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australia in the early stages of housing upturn. Attached dwellings to be primary driver.
|
|
This note provides a summary of Macromonitor's new report - Residential Building Outlook. The report contains detailed forecasts of residential building activity in Australia, by State, and by type of dwelling.
|
|
A residential building upturn is now underway in Australia and is forecast to last until calendar year 2027. The cycle will only begin to satisfy a significant deficit in the overall housing stock. The stock deficit has formed after years of weak building activity failing to meet increased demand from booming net overseas migration post-COVID. We forecast total housing stock will remain in a deficit even after the completion of the current upturn in 2027.
|
|
|
|
Much of the strength of the upturn will be from multi-unit dwellings as seen in the chart below. When comparing houses and attached dwellings over the year from June 2024 to June 2027, house commencements are forecast to rise by 24% while multi-unit dwellings are forecast to increase 70%.
|
|
|
Upward momentum in approvals is largely from investor demand. Interest rates cuts both domestically and globally reduced the cost of debt and thus incentivised property investment. A emerging component in the investor segment is build-to-rent, where investors construct and rent out the building themselves. This is focused entirely on the multi-unit dwellings.
|
Demand from first home owners continues to be weak, despite falls in interest rates. Affordability concerns, especially for detached dwellings, are a prevalent issue that is pricing first home buyers out of the market. We expect there to be a transition in demand away from detached dwellings to multi-unit dwellings within this group.
|
|
Government policy is also supportive of the dwelling upturn as well as the focus attached dwellings. Specifically, state level policy reforming planning laws to support high density dwellings in inner city locations around transport infrastructure.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Our most recent reports:
|
|
|
|
|
Australian Construction Cost Trends
|
|
|
This report examines the outlook for construction costs, in detail be sector and type of input.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australian Construction Projects Database
|
|
|
This latest list of projects corresponds with our fully revised set of forecasts published in November 2023.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australian Regional Construction Outlook
|
|
|
Our latest regional forecasts for residential building and construction have just been released.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australian Construction Materials Forecasts
|
|
|
Our latest forecasts assess the implications for construction materials demand of the current outlook for building and construction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australian Road and Bridge Works
|
|
|
This report examines the strength and composition of the current upturn, and determines the likely timing of the peak, and subsequent decline.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
